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Over 10 Million Votes Cast Nationwide So Far

Early voting has been going on in more than half the states. As of yesterday, there were 10,039,001 votes cast, according to  Florida has seen the most votes, where an extremely close Governor’s race dominates the landscape, with just over 1.96 million votes cast so far.  Florida is followed by California with 1.5 million votes cast and Texas rounding out the top three with just shy of a million votes cast.

Campaigns bombard their supporters with emails and memos deciphering all the data to show how and why their candidate is going to win. While these early numbers can’t necessarily predict the winner or even tell us which candidates the votes were cast for, it does provide some insight into who is voting.

For example, in Florida, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in returned absentee and early votes by a margin of 45.1-38%. While that may look good for the GOP, their advantage was more than 13% last week.

In Colorado, where there are hard fought contests for both US Senate and Governor, the Republicans have a 10% advantage over Democrat returns 42.8-32.4%. However, the NPA (No Party Affiliation) or “other” is 25%.  Compare that to only 17% in Florida.

On the other hand, Democrats lead the early vote returns in Louisiana 52.4-34.1. Does this mean Mary Landrieu, the Democrat candidate for Senate, is going to win?  Not necessarily.  Louisiana is likely to head to a December runoff as polling has shown none of the candidates reaching the 50+% threshold.

While early voting is favoring the Democrats in North Carolina by a margin of 17%, no one thinks the US Senate race will be decided by such a huge margin. Polling shows that race neck and neck.

So, as this last week of campaigning winds down, be mindful of all the noise you hear from campaigns. There is lots of talking points, data manipulation and spin.  But little of it matters until polls close on Election Day.